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Rates Outlook: Global Long-End Gets Some Relief From the BoE

The BoE today updated its approach to shrinking its balance sheet and the result today is a further drop in gilt yields with the 10 yr yield now down 8.5 bps. They will halt for the next 6 months its asset sales and thi…

US 10-Year Likely Gets Above and Stays Above 5% Ahead

Equities fall for 6th time in 7 sessions bringing key downside levels closer as breadth deteriorates, oil approaches 4-year highs and long-term yields hit the highest in nearly two decades

Has the Bond Market Already Done the Fed’s Job?

The market spent this week chasing a different driver almost every day. Inflation refused to cool enough for the Federal Reserve to relax, Europe moved closer to another rate hike, and oil stopped trading purely on war …

Bond Market Turmoil Is a Warning Shot for Every Investor

1. AI selloff looks like a reset, not a regime break: The selloff is painful but still concentrated in crowded AI and tech winners, rather than showing broad recession stress, disorderly yields or an earnings collapse. …

The Cleaner Fed Trade Is in SOFR, Not Treasuries

The Federal Open Market Committee primarily adjusts the stance of monetary policy through its target range for the federal funds rate. We discuss whether the fed funds rate remains the right operating target for short-t…

Weak Buyback and Strong Auctions: Bullish Signals for Bonds

Last Thursday’s Treasury buyback operation was deemed “weak” in the financial media as it bought back just $5.19 billion, less than the $6 billion investors had anticipated. A buyback succeeds only if current bondholder…

Rates Outlook: The Heat Ratchets Higher

WASHINGTON — Citing a brighter economic outlook, the Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate Wednesday but maintained its forecast for a total of three hikes this year amid still-modest inflation.

Bond Market’s Verdict on Washington Is Turning Harsher

If the Supreme Court rules President Donald Trump's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs are illegal, U.S. companies would not only be in line to receive tariff refunds, but also billions of dolla…

Bessent Brings a Pea Shooter to a Trillion-Dollar Bond Market

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's plan to suppress long-term borrowing costs through larger-scale Treasury buybacks is facing an unforgiving test from the market. The Treasury Department announced Wednesday it wou…

Bond Market Rejects Bessent’s Buyback and Sends Yields Higher

TL;DR: The US 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.81% to a three-year high near 4.85%, yet the Dollar Index is sitting near support instead of rallying — a divergence that suggests markets increasingly care about wheth…

The Long Bond March Is Rewriting the Old Market Playbook

The post-crisis era trained markets to treat exceptionally low bond yields as normal and anything approaching 5% as a threat. History suggests the opposite. The US 10 year yield may be higher than at almost any point in…

Historically Tight Credit Spreads Face a Test as Rates Rise

At the turn of the year 2025-26, economic growth surprised on the upside while financial market sentiment remained strong despite high uncertainty. The war in the Middle East is now putting this resilience to the test. …

Rates Outlook: A Short Sigh of Relief

The prospect of a peace agreement between the United States andIran is fueling optimism across global financial and commodity markets. At the center of attention is the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important…

Global Bond Markets at a Tipping Point

A historic bond issuance frenzy driven by the artificial intelligence arms race is pushing the global investment-grade bond market to its limits. On July 13 local time, US semiconductor stocks and AI concept shares suff…

Rates Outlook: So How Bad Could This Whole Thing Get?

At the end of one chaotic year and the threshold of another that could be equally turbulent, Hawaiʻi’s people, institutions and economy remain fairly resilient, though vulnerable to developments beyond its borders. The …

Bond Yields Rocket to 2-Decade High as Global Selloff Deepens

Global stocks came under renewed pressure on Tuesday, with technology shares bearing the brunt of selling as investors braced for a more aggressive Federal Reserve stance on inflation, even as oil prices continued their…

Rates Outlook: Curve influencers

Sam Azzarello: What's next for markets and the global economy after a year defined by escalating tariffs, persistent geopolitical tensions, and the rise of artificial intelligence across industries?