Markets are split about the Fed's move on Wednesday, and with no forward guidance, we don't expect that to change. In any case, we still take a more dovish view than markets, not just of the Fed, but also the Bank of En…
We started raising interest rates at the end of 2021 to help control inflation. Since then, it has fallen a lot and the pressures that caused price rises had eased. As a result, we were able to start reducing interest r…
Stock investors spend countless hours sifting through fundamental data, listening to earnings calls, charting prices, and tracking the economy, among other things. Yet one of the most revealing gauges of financial condi…
It was a “stunning rebuke” to President Trump. That’s not Fortune’s opinion, by the way. The words “stunning rebuke”—and variations on that theme—were the choice of dozens of front pages reporting on the midterm electio…
The United States has reached a significant milestone in its public finances, with federal debt held by the public climbing to approximately 100% of gross domestic product (GDP) for the first time since the aftermath of…
• Wednesday’s quarterly refunding could mark the biggest change in Treasury issuance guidance since early 2024, with Wall Street increasingly expecting Washington to give itself more freedom to reduce long-duration supp…
On the Fed, it's tough to view the current set-up of still elevated printed inflation and a Fed on hold as all that protective. We glean from this enough to validate the move back above 5% on the 10yr. On the ECB, forwa…
A core bond allocation traditionally has been a key element of a diversified portfolio. High-quality bonds generate regular income and, importantly, can be a stabilizing force when riskier assets come under pressure (Fi…
From better fiscal headroom to surprise income tax hikes, this is how UK Chancellor John Healey's first budget could surprise investors
Barring a Brazilian-style election surprise, the Fed should leave rates unchanged. It seems the US 10yr is waiting to tick this off before it deviates too much from 5%. Meanwhile, the UK 10yr yield should ease lower aft…
This past weekend, Adam Taggart and I discussed what happens to Treasury bond yields when the United States enters a military conflict. The conventional wisdom is reflexive and tidy. A conflict triggers a flight to safe…
Imagine someone looking into their crystal ball and telling you at the beginning of October that the coming September CPI data would be higher than expected, and producer prices (PPI) would rise 1.3% for the month, well…
The RBA deputy governor has identified inflation as the "one big problem" still facing Australia's economy.
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Millions of Americans will move forward with home purchases this year, despite mortgage rates that won’t budge from their perch above 6% and home prices that continue to break records. Some of these buyers are banking o…
The Consumer Price Index hit 3.7% in September – the latest sign that inflation remains a problem that isn't going away.
More than 16 years after the eurozone debt crisis erupted, France's fiscal woes are reviving uncomfortable memories
The size and persistence of inflation post-COVID-19 was among the largest problems the U.S. economy has faced in decades. The rise in house prices was a major contributor to this inflationary episode. Understanding this…
With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, buying bonds at 5% is the first real alternative that stock investors have had in nearly two decades.
Most investors are still focused on the stock market, especially technology and AI stocks. But over the past few days, the more interesting move has been happening in bonds. U.S. Treasury yields have moved sharply highe…
Crude oil prices jumped and stock prices fell after President Trump declared an end to the fragile ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military attacked dozens of targets along the Iranian coastline overnight, i…
📘 Why Manual Forex Trading Is Officially Dead — And AI Will Bury It in 2026 ________________________________________ 1. 🚨 Executive Summary Manual FX trading is not merely declining—it is entering its terminal phase. As…
The Relationship Every Gold Trader Should Understand Why Falling Real Yields Continue to Be One of Gold's Most Powerful Bullish Catalysts "Gold does not compete with stocks. Gold does not compete with bonds. Gold compet…
Rising US long-term interest rates have become the defining issue in global financial markets. But why have they climbed so fast? Yields have now surpassed the expected return on stocks for the first time in 20 months —…