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Euro: Limited upside as US Dollar stays strong – ING

Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD is holding up despite higher energy prices and French budget risks, helped by unwinding of heavy US tech and Dollar positions. He sees Fed tightening expectations remaining fi…

Gold: Range cap signals pullback risk – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts observe that Gold has formed an interim low near $4,065 and is consolidating in a narrow range. They flag resistance at $4,200/4,225 and warn that failure to break higher could trigger a deeper…

Indonesian Rupiah: BI on hold as MSCI risk weighs – BBH

Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman reports that Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% for a fourth meeting, even as IDR weakened slightly following MSCI’s downgrade consultation. BI expects the cur…

Asia FX: Risk-off bias and safe havens – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan notes stabilising global risk sentiment but highlights growing concerns over sustainability of the AI trade and its spillover to FX markets. He expects 2027 to be more challenging for risk assets, wit…

United Kingdom: Inflation shaped by energy shock – ING

James Smith at ING highlights that UK inflation pressures remain concentrated in energy, with food and services inflation surprisingly subdued. Headline inflation printed 3.5% in September and is expected to peak near 4…

Poland: Fiscal change and bond positioning – BNY

Geoff Yu highlights that Polish bonds are under-owned compared with Hungarian paper, with holdings having halved as Eurozone steepening and fiscal risks weighed on performance. He argues that potential fiscal reform and…

United States: Pre-election tail risks – Danske Bank

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team outlines US political tail risks ahead of the 3 November midterm elections. Early voting is underway in over 40 states and prediction markets still favor Democrats retaining control of…

United Kingdom: Budget faces limited fiscal flexibility - Nomura

Nomura’s UK budget preview expects Chancellor Healey, at his first budget on 28 October, to allow fiscal headroom to fall to around £15bn. Following September public finance data, the cash deficit is no longer surprisin…

Bank of England: Rate path shaped by energy shock – ING

ING’s James Smith expects the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates in November and February as a precaution against second-round inflation effects, even as evidence of broader spillovers from higher energy pric…

United Kingdom: Tax rises and temporary relief – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank anticipates around 25–30 policy measures in the Autumn Budget, with modest consolidation and backloaded tax increases. A higher bank surcharge, online marketplace VAT collection and dividend tax hikes are …