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Investing.com - Jefferies downgraded Ipsen SA (EPA:IPN) to Underperform from Hold and set a price target of €135, citing competitive threats to the company’s Somatuline drug from Camurus’ CAM2029 candidate.
The research firm said Camurus’ CAM2029 has a reasonable likelihood to show superiority to Ipsen’s Somatuline in late 2026 or early 2027, which could result in 35% or more downside to long-term estimates for the drug. Somatuline represents approximately 30% of Ipsen’s group sales and 28% of Jefferies’ sum-of-the-parts valuation.
Jefferies said the potential downside would result in 15% to 20% downside to 2028-2029 consensus profits, given Somatuline’s high profitability. The firm assigned a greater than 50% probability of success for Camurus and incorporated this scenario into its base case estimates.
The research firm also flagged risks to Ipsen’s Onivyde drug, which accounts for approximately 5% of group sales. Jefferies noted that Revolution Medicines’ daraxonrasib showed median overall survival over double that of Onivyde in second-line pancreatic cancer, with potential for a wider label than expected.
Jefferies derived its €135 price target using a sum-of-the-parts analysis. The firm acknowledged that Ipsen’s acquisitions of Albireo Pharma and Kartos Therapeutics could drive longer-term growth, while long-acting corabotase provides strategic optionality for aesthetic and therapeutic indications.
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