Bitcoin slides toward $60,000 as ETF outflows and liquidations intensify

• Bitcoin has dropped over 42% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198, falling below $74,000 in late May 2026 as geopolitical tensions and ETF outflows intensify selling pressure.
• Bearish predictions range from $38,000 to $60,000, with analysts citing technical patterns like bearish flags and Elliott Wave corrections, as well as on-chain metrics such as MVRV Z-Score and funding rates.
• K33 Research argues the worst may already be over, suggesting Bitcoin's February low of $60,000 was the cycle's maximum drawdown. Others, including Willy Woo and Stifel, see a much deeper decline ahead.
• Institutional ETF outflows have accelerated, with $1.55 billion leaving spot Bitcoin ETFs over six consecutive trading days in mid-May, the largest weekly outflow since late January 2026.
• The 2026 Iran war and Strait of Hormuz crisis have become a persistent macro headwind, triggering repeated sell-offs and nearly $1 billion in crypto liquidations in a single 24-hour period.

Bitcoin is at a crossroads. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been bleeding value for months, and the analysts tracking its trajectory cannot agree on how much further it has to fall.

As of May 29, 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $73,200. That puts it roughly 42% below the all-time high of $126,198 recorded on October 6, 2025. Over the past week alone, the price has dropped from around $77,000 to below $74,000, dragged lower by fresh U.S. military strikes on Iranian drone sites near the Strait of Hormuz.

The question is no longer whether Bitcoin is in a bear market. On-chain data, ETF flows, and derivatives positioning all confirm that. The real question is: where does the bottom sit?

We compared every major bear market prediction currently circulating in the crypto space. The targets range from $38,000 to $60,000, the methodologies vary from pure technical analysis to on-chain forensics, and the timelines stretch from “already happened” to late 2026.

Bitcoin Crash Predictions: Who Says What

The following table summarizes the most prominent Bitcoin bear market forecasts for 2026, sorted by target price.

One thing stands out immediately: the forecasts cluster into two camps. The “deep crash” camp (Stifel, Martinez, Xanrox, Woo) sees Bitcoin falling another 40–50% from current levels. The “shallow correction” camp (K33, Brandt, CryptoQuant) believes the worst is either behind us or limited to the $55,000–$60,000 range.

The Bearish Case: Why Some Analysts Expect $44,000 or Lower

The most aggressive bearish forecasts rely heavily on technical analysis and historical cycle comparisons.

Xanrox’s Elliott Wave model is the prediction that sparked fresh attention this week. According to the TradingView analyst, Bitcoin has been forming three nested bearish flag patterns on the daily chart since its October high. The Elliott Wave count places the current price action inside wave C of a larger ABC corrective structure, with the bear market approximately 70% complete.

The critical level in Xanrox’s framework is $71,000. A confirmed breakdown below that price would validate the bearish flag and open the path toward $63,000 first, then ultimately $44,000. That $44,000 target represents a high-volume point of control on the weekly chart, a price zone where significant historical trading activity has occurred.

Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, has also pointed to October 2026 as his base case for the bear market bottom, aligning with Xanrox’s projected timeline.

Meanwhile, Willy Woo’s analysis takes a different approach but reaches a similar conclusion. Rather than relying on chart patterns, Woo examines on-chain liquidity flows. His assessment is blunt: both spot and futures liquidity have been declining simultaneously, a condition he says has never preceded a sustained Bitcoin rally. His target of $45,000 represents what he considers a typical bear market floor, where aggressive dip-buying tends to emerge.

Stifel’s $38,000 target is arguably the most bearish call from a traditional finance institution. The 136-year-old brokerage firm drew a linear trend through the lows of every major Bitcoin crash since 2010 and extrapolated the next logical support level. That approach is straightforward but assumes historical crash patterns will repeat in a market that now includes spot ETFs, institutional custody, and stablecoin legislation that did not exist during prior cycles.

The Bullish Counterargument: Has Bitcoin Already Bottomed?

Not everyone is bracing for another 40% decline.

K33 Research published a detailed report in mid-May arguing that Bitcoin’s February drop to approximately $60,000 was likely the deepest drawdown this cycle will produce. Their case rests on three pillars.

First, the 2025 bull market was less aggressive than prior cycles. Bitcoin’s rally from the 2022 lows to the $126,000 peak represented a roughly 5x gain, compared to the 20x moves seen in 2017 and 2021. A less aggressive bull market, K33 argues, sets the stage for a proportionally less severe bear market.

Second, derivatives data shows an unusually prolonged period of bearish positioning. Bitcoin’s 30-day average funding rate had been negative for 81 consecutive days at the time of K33’s report. That level of persistent pessimism typically exhausts selling pressure rather than fueling further declines.

Third, the structural support beneath Bitcoin has fundamentally changed. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional custody infrastructure all provide floors that did not exist in 2018 or 2022.

CryptoQuant’s analysis falls somewhere in between. Their contributor Sunny Mom projects a final “wash-out” to $55,000–$60,000 between October and December 2026, based on the MVRV Z-Score needing to dip below zero to match historical bear market bottoms. But even this more cautious view frames the decline as the final stage of a bottoming process, not the beginning of a prolonged crash.

Macro Wildcards: Iran, ETF Outflows, and the Fed

What none of these technical or on-chain models fully account for is the macro environment, which in 2026 has been dominated by a factor no prior Bitcoin cycle has faced: a hot war involving a major oil-producing nation.

The 2026 Iran war, which began on February 28 when U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iranian military targets, has transformed the Strait of Hormuz into a militarized chokepoint. Iran’s closure and subsequent toll regime on the strait has disrupted roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, driving inflation higher and pushing the Federal Reserve to consider rate hikes for the first time in years.

The impact on Bitcoin has been direct and measurable. On May 28, fresh U.S. airstrikes on Iranian drone-launching sites triggered a sharp risk-off move across all crypto markets. According to CoinDesk, nearly $958 million in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with longs accounting for $897 million of that total.

The ETF picture reinforces the bearish narrative. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced their worst outflow streak of 2026.

• $1.55 billion withdrew over six consecutive trading days starting May 14
• Year-to-date net inflows have shrunk to just $536 million
• Jane Street reduced its Bitcoin ETF holdings by approximately 70% in Q1 2026
• Goldman Sachs cut its Bitcoin ETF position by 10%
• BlackRock’s IBIT alone shed $448 million in a single session

These outflows matter because spot Bitcoin ETFs have become one of the clearest real-time signals of institutional sentiment. When that signal turns negative for weeks at a time, it removes a significant source of buy-side pressure from the market.

The CPI print for April came in at 3.8%, the highest since September 2023. The Producer Price Index jumped to 6%. These numbers have pushed back expectations for rate cuts and strengthened the case for a stronger dollar, both of which are headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin.

When Will Bitcoin Bottom? Timeline Comparison

Most bearish analysts converge on a similar window for the cycle low: Q3 to Q4 2026.

• Ali Martinez: October 2026, based on the average duration of prior bear markets
• Xanrox: September–October 2026, with recovery beginning in November–December
• Willy Woo: Q4 2026, with a new bull cycle starting in 2027
• CryptoQuant: October–December 2026, coinciding with a sub-zero MVRV Z-Score
• K33 Research: Already passed (February 2026), with slow consolidation between $60K–$75K expected through the rest of the year

The convergence around October 2026 is notable because it aligns with the roughly 12-month average duration of historical crypto bear markets. The 2018 bear lasted about 12 months from peak to bottom. The 2022 bear lasted approximately 13 months. If the current cycle follows a similar pattern from the October 2025 peak, October 2026 would be almost exactly 12 months later.

However, timing a market bottom is notoriously difficult, and none of these forecasts account for escalatory surprises in the Iran conflict, unexpected Fed policy shifts, or potential black swan events in the crypto industry itself.

What This Means for Investors

The wide dispersion of predictions tells a story in itself. When institutional analysts at Stifel project $38,000 and K33 Research argues the bottom was $60,000 four months ago, the honest answer is that nobody knows for certain.

• The bear market is real and confirmed by multiple metrics: price below the 200-day moving average, negative funding rates for months, ETF outflows accelerating, and the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 30.
• Macro risk is elevated and ongoing. The Strait of Hormuz crisis introduces a variable that no prior crypto cycle has had to price in. Each escalation triggers liquidation cascades and reinforces the risk-off trade.
• On-chain fundamentals are mixed. Persistent negative funding rates suggest exhausted selling, but the MVRV Z-Score has not yet reached the sub-zero territory that historically marks definitive bottoms.
• Structural support is stronger than in past cycles. Spot ETFs, stablecoin regulation, and institutional Bitcoin holders mean the infrastructure floor is higher, even if sentiment is weak.

For those navigating this environment, the range between $55,000 and $44,000 represents the zone where the majority of bearish forecasts cluster. Whether Bitcoin reaches those levels depends largely on how the Iran situation evolves, whether the Fed raises rates, and whether institutional ETF outflows stabilize or accelerate.

FAQs

How far has Bitcoin fallen from its all-time high?

Bitcoin peaked at $126,198 on October 6, 2025. As of late May 2026, it trades near $73,200, representing a decline of approximately 42%.

Is Bitcoin in a bear market in 2026?

Yes. By most definitions, Bitcoin entered bear market territory after falling more than 20% from its all-time high. Multiple on-chain indicators, including negative funding rates for over 80 consecutive days and ETF outflows exceeding $1.5 billion in a single week, confirm bearish conditions.

What is the lowest Bitcoin price prediction for 2026?

Stifel analysts project a potential low of approximately $38,000, based on a linear trend drawn through historical crash lows. Analyst Ali Martinez has a similar range of $38,000 to $50,000.

Could Bitcoin crash to $44,000?

TradingView analyst Xanrox has outlined a scenario where Bitcoin falls to $44,000 based on a bearish flag pattern and Elliott Wave ABC corrective structure. On-chain analyst Willy Woo projects a similar $45,000 target. These forecasts assume the current downtrend continues without a macro catalyst for reversal.

When will the Bitcoin bear market end?

Most analysts project a bottom between September and December 2026, based on historical cycle comparisons and on-chain metrics. K33 Research is the notable exception, arguing the bottom already occurred at $60,000 in February 2026.

Why is Bitcoin crashing in May 2026?

The immediate catalyst is the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict near the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered nearly $1 billion in crypto liquidations on May 28. Broader factors include rising Treasury yields, elevated CPI readings, ETF outflows, and the overall bear market trend that has been underway since late 2025.

Will Bitcoin reach $200,000?

Analyst Xanrox’s long-term roadmap projects Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by 2028, but only after the current bear market concludes and a new bull cycle begins. This projection depends on macro recovery and renewed institutional inflows.