Oil prices turn lower as Bessent says U.S. may have Iran deal "today or tomorrow"

Brent Oil (4-hour chart) is wedged between the 200 SMA support near $82.30 and 20/50 SMA resistance at $86.26/$89.35—with price last seen at $85.71, the market is neutral but ready for a breakout. This compression zone historically breeds strong moves, so the next close above or below these levels could trigger sharp trend acceleration.

Squeezed in the Danger Zone

Bearish bias dominates: The overall structure leans bearish, with Brent Oil unable to reclaim the cloud (Ichimoku) or break above the SuperTrend at $89.98. Short-term moving averages (20/50 SMA) are pressing down as resistance, and the price is trading just above the critical 200 SMA support at $82.30—a level coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (key technical confluence).

Bullish glimmer: The presence of a bullish pin bar at $82.63—plus a tentative higher low—signals buyers are making a stand. The RSI has clawed back from oversold, hinting at a possible momentum shift.

No-Trade Alert: The current $84.00–$87.00 range is messy—too many conflicting signals for either camp to have the upper hand. Wait for a confirmed breakout or breakdown before making bold moves.

Bear & Bull Playbook

Key Takeaway: Bears have the edge while price is below $89.98, but bulls could seize control with a clean close above resistance. The risk/reward is more compelling for shorts at this stage, though bullish attempts can’t be ruled out if momentum flips.

Risk & Reversal Zones

  • Critical Support: $82.30 (200 SMA) and $81.45 (Fibonacci base)—a 4h close below puts the mid-$70s in play
  • Major Resistance: $89.50–$90.00 (SuperTrend/50 SMA/Volume node)—bull case only triggers above
  • "No-Trade" Range: $84.00–$87.00 (Unpredictable chop, best observed)
  • Bull Trap Alert: Watch for fake breakouts at $86.30—possible snapbacks hurt the impatient

What the Indicators Say

  • ATR (2.12): Volatility is healthy—moves can be fast
  • Volume: Declining, signals less conviction (wait for breakout volume confirmation)
  • MACD/RSI: RSI is recovering (currently 45.9), but MACD needs a bullish cross for real upside
  • Pattern Watch: The double bottom at $81.45–$82.63 is only 30% complete—patience needed for breakout traders

Key Lesson to Remember

Trade the Break, Not the Chop: In compression zones like this, waiting for confirmation (a close outside key levels) helps avoid getting whipsawed by false moves. Let price tip its hand—preservation beats prediction.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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