“Prepare to hear a LOT about this from the bears, but down in June and July has been weak for the rest of the year historically,” Detrick noted. When these two months fall, the rest of the year drops more than half the time, posting an average decline of 2.5%.
The seasonal calendar adds further reason for vigilance. Detrick highlighted that August and September frequently deliver out-of-the-blue disruptive events that rock global markets, particularly during a midterm election year.
The recent momentum and semiconductor crash in July may signal that typical midterm volatility has arrived early. Investors are urged to prepare now for potential chop, especially as markets test Federal Reserve leadership.
Despite short-term seasonal risks, Detrick maintains a broader bullish stance for the rest of 2026, expecting S&P 500 gains between 15% and 18% by year-end. –
Solid underlying fundamentals—including strong second-quarter corporate earnings and broad market participation—support the long-term uptrend. The NYSE common stock advance/decline line recently hit an all-time high, proving market breadth remains on firm footing.
Detrick advises investors against panicking during seasonal weakness, pointing to historical strength in the fourth quarter of the presidential cycle as a catalyst for better times ahead.
The S&P 500 index has advanced 9.20% year-to-date. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index was up 9.20%, and the Dow Jones gained 8.48%YTD.
Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), closed up 0.54% at $524.32 on Friday.
In premarket on Monday, SPY was up 0.51%, QQQ rose 0.34%, and DIA was up 0.82%.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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