ING’s Asia-Pacific research notes that South Korea’s upcoming data should show stronger industrial production and a widening trade surplus, even as export and import growth moderates. Technology and semiconductor exports are expected to underpin the surplus. At the same time, headline CPI is forecast to ease slightly, with core inflation decelerating more sharply, pointing to reduced underlying price pressures.
Stronger output with softer inflation
"South Korea releases August industrial production data on Wednesday. Market consensus expects industrial production growth to accelerate to 4.5% YoY, from 3.6% in July. Monthly output is forecast to rise 0.5%."
"September trade data, out Thursday, is expected to show a moderation in both export and import growth to 61.2% YoY and 20.7% YoY, respectively."
"Despite slower growth, the trade surplus is forecast to widen to $38.4bn, supported by continued strength in technology and semiconductor exports."
"Headline CPI inflation is expected to ease to 3.0% YoY in September, from 3.1% in August. Core inflation is forecast to slow more sharply to 2.8% YoY, from 3.4%."
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